|
FORECASTING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS IN INDIA WITH ARIMA MODELS
2
Author(s):
SWATI SINGH, DR. DEVESH KUMAR
Vol - 8, Issue- 11 ,
Page(s) : 210 - 219
(2017 )
DOI : https://doi.org/10.32804/IRJMSH
Get Index Page
Abstract
The present study is an attempt to build ARIMA model to forecast foreign direct investment inflows from 2016 to 2021 for sectors that attracted higher inflows of foreign direct investment in India. Employing Box- Jenkins methodology ARIMA (110), ARIMA (011) and ARIMA (111) models were developed for FDI time series data. The accuracy of the models was tested by performing different diagnostic tests to ensure the accuracy of the results. The results show that ARIMA (110) is the best model for FDI inflow in housing sector and computer sector, ARIMA (011) is the best model for FDI inflow in services sector and telecommunication sector, and ARIMA (111) is the best model for Total FDI inflow and FDI inflow in automobile sector. The results of ARIMA models revealed an increasing pattern of FDI inflow in all sector over the period of forecasting. As per results of ARIMA (111) model, India can receive total FDI inflow up to $ 48273.6 in 2020-21.
|